VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing Blog

Record snows are a comin!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 16:06:00 +0000

A few days after my first chase of the year (intercepted the tornado warned storm in Cowley County, Kansas on Monday...just got a wall cloud), the attention has shifted from the once previous spring like atmosphere in the Sunflower State of temperatures in the 70's and blooms on the trees along with the green grass to a snowstorm of record potential.

This storm doesn't seem like the nuisance storms that Kansas has seen throughout the winter season where an inch or two would fall once in a while. Looking at recent model data, this storm has the potential to drop in an excess of a foot, as much as 2 feet of snow over a wide swath of Kansas, from Liberal to Kansas City. A snowstorm of this magnitude would be enough to cripple the Kansas City Metropolitan area for a few days. Blizzard warnings are already in effect for the southwestern portion of the state and the warnings and watches will continue their eastward movement with a possible issuance of watches by both the Topeka and Pleasant Hill NWSFOs this afternoon. NAM and GFS models have been pretty consistent over the last several model runs in a bullseye of maximum snow accumulations roughly along the US Highway 56 corridor in Kansas where the maximum snow may fall. Some of the maps on Earl's model site have parts of the Kansas in the maximum by the map of snowfall so who knows what tomorrow through Saturday has in store for the Sunflower State. I am hoping for a decent snowstorm for once, something to at least close out the winter season as spring tries to make a comeback sometime soon.

All I know is that should we get the massive snow amounts that are predicted by the models, KC will literally shut down for a few days, and the casino will be a ghost town when I go in for work Saturday evening.

It's 2009 and it's been...8 months since my last entry!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 22 Feb 2009 21:58:00 +0000

Wow, time does fly when you are busy, and busy I have been. I am just about in the middle of the last semester of community college before the 4 year school is set to begin in August.

Storm Chasing season is just about here in just about a month for the Sunflower State. Some new equipment is in the process of being purchased for the new season, including a weather station for the Xterra along with a small HD camcorder (those cheap Aiptek ones) for use as a dash cam. The resolution produced on the Aiptek is 1440X1080 which will match that of the HV30 that I currently have. The car is slated for a small repair sometime in the next month to correct a problem that it is having with the overdrive (car likes kicking itself in and out of the 5th gear when I'm coasting on the highway). Other than that, there are no major equipment purchases to be made this year as I have been saving up some dough for the 4 year school (NW Missouri State in Maryville, Missouri, for those who are wondering) and for a trip to Walt Disney World for myself and my kids in August. And yes, I have been saving up for that occasional storm chase that'll pop up here and there this season. Good times are abound in the months ahead as I shift away from the working world and back into the educational setting that I was in before, of course, without putting a damper on the storm chasing activities, I hope.

This Winter has been pretty much a scathe away from all of the nasties that come with the season. We haven't really had much of any snow or ice to contend with in the Kansas City Metro, which can be a good or bad thing, depending on who you ask.

Well, it's a short hour and some before my shift is to start at work tonight so I'll leave it at this for right now. Hey, at least it's an update!

It has been awhile!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:29:00 +0000

Yes it has been awhile since I last posted on this blog. The main severe weather season has winded down and I have been working mucho overtime at work to put some money away for a much needed trip beginning next week. Still hoping for another chance at some chasing this year, but so far it isn't looking that would occur anytime soon.

Yesterday

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 15:40:00 +0000

Yesterday was a chase day for me (no tornadoes), but was also a devestating day across Iowa and Kansas as tornadoes kill 6 including 4 teenagers in a boy scout camp north of Omaha/Council Bluffs. My heart goes out to those affected with these tragedies. This line of storms produced tornado warning after tornado warning from Iowa to Kansas including warnings which blared the tornado sirens in Omaha.

I chased the storms yesterday and intercepted several tornado warned storms. Here is the report that I posted on StormTrack:

No tornadoes yet again for me but an interesting chase to say the least as I again bounced around from tornado warned storms from Valley, Nebraska to Plattsmouth, while chasing through the metro Omaha area during rush hour! I intercepted the tornado warned storm near Valley where strong rotation was observed. I continued east on this storm along Maple Street in northwestern Omaha where the rotation continued to be observed as it headed into Omaha. As the storm moved further north and then to the east, I broke off of the storm as it headed towards Iowa to try my luck on storms developing to the south and west. Noticing a few minutes late that the OAX radar was not operating, switched over to the Hastings radar and tried to intercept the storm near Lincoln. I didn't make it that far as I then intercepted a newly warned storm near Gretna where a funnel cloud might have been observed. Headed back into Omaha and then south on 75 to intercept another tornado warned storm headed towards Bellevue and Offut AFB. Realizing I was in the path of the storm, I quickly headed south on 75 while observing some rotation. Did not see anything really from this storm and as darkness fell, decided to call it a day and head home.

While tornadoes occured in Nebraska and Iowa, another Kansas town falls victim to a tornado as the town of Chapman (between Abilene and Manhattan) had many businesses/houses damaged and/or destroyed. The pictures above shows a picture of downtown Chapman and a picture of the city limit sign of the city I took in 2002. Tornadoes also hit the northern part of Manhattan severely damaging several buildings on the Kansas State University campus.

The storms don't even appear to be done yet as another day of severe weather with possible tornadoes appear probable today in southeastern Kansas through Missouri and Iowa/Wisconsin/Illinois.

For those wondering about my live streaming, I have temporarily disabled it as my video capture device hardware which links my camcorder to my laptop is not working correctly. That and I will be purchasing an amp for the sprint card which should allow for a better signal and better video quality. The streaming should be up again sometime soon.

Sorry for the lack of updates

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Tue, 03 Jun 2008 15:05:00 +0000

I have been pre-occupied over the last week or so between the kids, work, and storm chasing that has been occuring.

As for storm chasing this week, I will be watching today's potential but I doubt I will be heading out. Tomorrow looks more like a sure thing for heading out to chase. Thursday, though, has my doubts as storms will be rocketing to the northeast at or over 50 knots (according to Bunkers). That and I have planned to be headed towards Saint Louis on Thursday afternoon for a trip with my kids and my parents for the weekend.

My last chase on May 29th involved intercepting the Kearney, Nebraska supercell. I intercepted at the southern edge of town. Though I did not see a tornado, power flashes in the city provided evidence of a possible tornado.

More later...

Chase of May 22/23

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 25 May 2008 18:25:00 +0000

Wow, so many things I did wrong and quite a few tornadoes I missed out on due to positioning and getting stuck in the mud...but I did manage to see at least 1 tornado (the other was a rain wrapped tornado with numerous power flashes, though could not confirm a visual)

May 22 ended up with me being stuck in the mud for 2 hours in the middle of nowhere Kansas! I didn't have a cell phone signal to boot, but I had my internet connection working so I loaded up the storm chasing chat room and asked people in there if they could get in contact with somebody for me to get me pulled out. Low and behold with their help, volunteer fire fighters and a nice gentleman with his tractor pulled me out. NW Kansas hospitality is wonderful and a life saver. Needless to say, no tornadoes observed that day as I missed the Hoxie wedge by a minute as I encountered down power lines along US-24 just west of town.

May 23 ended up being a little better as I did get to see a tornado or two but a wealth of positioning mistakes and mistakes on my part cost me a few more tornadoes. If I would have been patient and followed storms that I had originally been on, I would have tracked the tornado near Quinter, and one near Shields, along with countless others... But I ended up in Ness County where I had very friendly encounters with LEO, especially with a sheriff and his wife who were in a marked patrol vehicle who I chatted with and provided radar updates for about 5-10 minutes showing him a supercell that was tracking northeastward into his county. He went off to the SE towards Ness City, and then I followed to boot a few minutes later. I intercepted this storm S of Ness City and then followed it north and then west, and then east, and then back north again where I reported a tornado on the ground NNE of town on the Spotter Network. I followed the storm east on K-4 where all I could see was power flash after power flash but no visual on a tornado. This tornado, I believe, turned into a wedge and headed for the Cedar Bluff lake. With nighttime falling, I discontinued the chase and drove back home. It was a scary site driving through the communities of Hays and Ness City with sirens going off, also with hearing reports of a large tornado near Greensburg (and I thought, not again..).

Overall, if I could repeat this chase, I would change so much on what I screwed up. Even though I did not come out empty handed, I am not too happy with this multiple day chase. Oh well, there is always more to come this year... I met up with Fred Plowman from Olathe (he says that he sees me all the time on chases...and this is very true!). He showed me video of the wedge he got near Hoxie, KS from Thursday, quite impressive I could say. He also told me how he also got stuck in the mud on Thursday, not for 2 hours like my experience, but for 18 HOURS! Wow, I would have lost my mind then... I also waved at the TornadoLive team with Dick McGowan at the wheel as I always seem to see them every chase now-a-days too! There are always a lot of chasers out in these storms but these two I seem to always see all the time! Wicked!

Tomorrow looks like a doozy forecasting, but I might be heading out for the chase, regardless, as it seems that a closer to home risk may be in store for some tornadoes along a southward moving front. A frontal chase...I am going to have to take a second look at that...more to come soon!

Chasing Today/Tomorrow

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Thu, 22 May 2008 14:21:00 +0000

Be sure to check out VORTEXpursuit.com Live for the latest status on today and tomorrow's chasing activities!

http://www.vortexpursuit.com/live.html

12Z NAM from this morning showing slower storm motions, 500mb winds veering more to the SW (instead of the due S winds) for targets south of I-70, and dewpoints in the middle 60s. Instability is lower than on previous model runs, but should still definitely be a worthwhile day in terms of chasing. Stay tuned on VORTEXpursuit.com Live for the latest updates as the blog is usually not updated during chasing activity...

Upcoming Severe (THU-FRI)

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Tue, 20 May 2008 20:15:00 +0000

It so far appears that I will be chasing a severe weather setup that is poised to impact the western portions of Kansas into southwestern Nebraska this coming Thursday and Friday.

On Thursday, a surface low pressure system will deepen during the day as the 18Z NAM model run from today shows a reading of 982mb centered somewhere in SE Colorado or SW Kansas. Each model run has been moving this system a little more to the south and east which is good for me as that means a shorter drive than what was forecasted previously. A concern about the setup on Thursday is the high LCL levels which could lead to a much lower chance for surface based storms. I feel that the best chances for storms will be near the warm front/dryline intersect where LCL levels will be at the lowest; target as of right now will be along the Kansas/Nebraska border somewhere in the rectangle of Oberlin, Kansas and McCook, Nebraska to Smith Center, Kansas and Franklin, Nebraska. Any storms that fire along the dryline will most likely be elevated as LCL levels exceed 1000m. I will keep tune to the models and adjust targets accordingly.

Friday appears to be a better day for obtaining tornadic supercells than on Thursday. LCL levels appear to be lower than on Thursday, but there is quite the difference between the 12Z and the 18Z model runs that has me scratching my head. I'll divulge more about Friday on future blog entries.

So far, it looks like a go for storm chasing on Thursday and Friday as I intend to leave Gardner by 8AM on Thursday, hoping to head back into town early Saturday morning. Unless Saturday looks more interesting than what it does now, that is the plan.

In other news, these blog entries are being cross posted onto my blog on the MyFOXKC Community Blog section. The official blog is on the VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing website at www.vortexpursuit.com/blog.html .

There is a video on LiveLeak that has caught my eye as my kids think it is funny! Check it out as a girl screams for her mom as she was caught shoplifting and being held outside of a store: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cbc_1210935918

Today's Severe

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Tue, 13 May 2008 22:40:00 +0000

I have decided to sit out any chasing today...

This comes after a lot of factors that weren't coming together to warrant any tornado potential. There were a lot of things that turned me off to the system, most notably was the unidrectional wind profile above 850mb. This thing was screaming at my face as a potential squall line. Also of note is the very relatively dry 700mb layer, with relative humidities at or around 10-30% for the extent of the frontal system. Surface moisture was there, but the mid layer moisture just wasn't around to help the storms sustain themselves.

Looks like nothing on the horizon for a while, severe weather wise, so it'll be back to playing GTA IV and Mario Kart.

Severe Events of May 10, 2008

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 11 May 2008 06:44:00 +0000

It is always unfortunate to hear of the loss of life when it comes to tornadoes. It appears as though, that there has been 19 unconfirmed fatalities in Missouri and Oklahoma as a result of a single long-track supercell that spawned multiple tornadoes from Chetopa, Kansas to the Ozarks of Missouri. This long-tracked supercell was just barely inside of the original Day 1 SPC Convective Outlook area for tornadic activity (right on the edge of the 2% line--see map on left). This supercell and spawned tornadoes did extensive damage to the town of Picher, Oklahoma, which is located right on the Kansas/Oklahoma State Line along US Highway 69. 5 people were killed in the community. As the storm progressed eastward into Missouri, it did a number on westbound cars on I-44 as many had spidered windshields and the such from the golf ball sized hail reported along the highway. The storm went on into Newton County, Missouri, causing at least 13 unconfirmed fatalities near the towns of Racine and Seneca. The very deadly year for tornadoes continues...my thoughts are with those who were affected by the storms.

I managed to get out and chase this event. I managed to photograph one tornado near Oswego, Kansas and tried my best to intercept the long-tracked supercell near Chetopa but the speed of the storm combined with the east-southeasterly movement made it impossible for intercept. Chase log is up at: http://www.vortexpursuit.com/2008-0510.html

Greensburg Anniversary and Wednesday

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 04 May 2008 21:05:00 +0000

Today AOA 9:50PM will mark exactly one year since the devestating EF-5 leveled 95% of the town of Greensburg in Kiowa County, Kansas. I still remember that May 4th in 2007. I was at work, dreading the missed chasing opportunity that I had told my co-workers a week in advance that I was probably not going to be at work that day... President Bush was in Greensburg to head the commencement address at the local high school, and a wealth of festivals, ground-breakings, and the such have been going on in the town to mark the one year anniversary.

Now...we have a very interesting weather scenario panning out this coming Wednesday. The models are having a very hard time coming to grips with this system, and feel that they are suffering from convective feedback which the models seem to want to downplay the events on Wednesday. The NAM, GFS, and the ECMWF are in general agreement on the position on the surface low and upper level system, but that's basically about it. The finer details of the day, from temperatures, dewpoints, etc. are not being handled well as is evident by the wide array of forecasts produced by the models. We will see how the models progress on this system on further model runs. I already have the day off (usual 3 days off on work week) so will be looking forward to see how this system pans out and to plan for a potential chasing opportunity.

Yesterday's Chase and Morning Wind

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Fri, 02 May 2008 17:06:00 +0000

Though it was not technically a bust as all varieties of severe weather were observed, except a tornado, it was a fun chase throughout the southeastern part of the state as I observed multiple wall clouds and some decent rotation at times. I chased near the town of Fredonia, northeast to Chanute during the day. I called off the chase at 9:00PM despite the tornado warning just to my east in Allen County, because I am not much of a fan in chasing nighttime situations.

At 1:30AM, a severe storm blew through Gardner with 70-75 MPH winds (I measured a gust of 74 MPH on the Kestrel, which is a minimal hurricane). This line of storms packed a punch on the northland of the Kansas City area with some significant damage reported in Gladstone. NWS EAX will be out today performing some storm assessments to see if there was a possible tornado up there.

Forecast for 5/1.

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 16:53:00 +0000

If The NAM/WRF is right......then everybody and their mother will be in northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas along I-35 on Thursday afternoon. The 12Z model data which now goes out to the aforementioned storm shows the frontal boundary and dryline intersect about halfway from the Oklahoma/Kansas border to Oklahoma City along I-35. Northeast of this feature, the model breaks out some precipitation, along with the model showing SSE surface winds and a not as powerful LLJ that the GFS model from last night was forecasting. The model veers H85 winds a tad to the SSW, but leaves 925mb winds due to the south which should be an alright ideal. The model could be overdoing the dewpoints as just about 70 degree Td's may be hard to reach, but should that verify, watch out! Showing a moist layer at H7 and at H85, should not think that the cap is an issue in this area, but further south along the dryline, the layers are drier and the cap becomes more of a hinder for thunderstorm development in that area. According to Earl's model site, the severe parameters including the STP are maximized in this area so if this model verifies, watch out again!

It still appears that the 12Z GFS model is a little more quicker on the situation on Thursday and a little more northerly as it puts the dryline/frontal intercept in SE Kansas. With the NAM/WRF showing less 0-1km SRH due to the weaker LLJ, the GFS still maintains its stronger wind speeds in the crucial level.

But, for now, still feel that there are still some considerable model differences including the position of the dryline/frontal boundary intercept and the strength of the LLJ which will then dictate where the storms will develop, what mode of development will happen, and how strong. NAM/WRF favors an area in north central Oklahoma into extreme southern Kansas, while the GFS still prefers an area in east central Kansas southward to northeast Oklahoma. Further model runs will hopefully hose in an agreement on the location of the best severe features. Either way, both areas depicted by the models are decent chasing areas and the storms should be moving at chasable speeds. Still looks like a decent severe weather setup on tap for the 1st of May.

Blue Sky Bust!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 04:50:00 +0000

As I had some obligations to tend to this evening (picking up my kids from their mom at Melvern Lake by 11:00PM), I did not get to do any of the nighttime chasing that is currently going on at the moment in the northern part of the state. Today, though, for me can be summed up in 3 words: Blue Sky Bust.

Not a cloud in the sky in Larned as the cap held its course throughout the day for those who braved the southern target area. Perhaps I should have evaluated the H7 relative humidity forecast map which showed a majority of south central Kansas at 20% or less humidity. That dry air sure put a hinder on today's development. But, fear not!!! There is another chasing opportunity that appears to be coming around next Thursday.

Edit 4/25 @ 1:36PM: I should have went with my original target area as I wrote this around 11:30PM on Wednesday: Discussion: Interesting situation shaping up today at a dryline/frontal intersection somewhere in southern Nebraska or northern Kansas from McCook, NE to Norton, KS. Looks likely that storms will fire at the triple point and then gradually south along the dryline as the late afternoon progresses into the evening. Things will get much more interesting as the evening progresses into the overnight hours before the storms congeal into a massive MCS on its trek eastward.

Tough Call Today/Tomorrow

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:45:00 +0000

Wow, I haven't updated the blog in almost a week...

The period of today/tomorrow in terms of severe weather is a tough call regarding where and if to chase. Most of the Moderate Risk area highlighted by the recent Day 1 outlook by the SPC is sitting under cloud cover and developing convection. This is going to make it tough for the area to become unstable for the fuel for any afternoon convection. Going to the other target area, by the surface low in the area of eastern Colorado to southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, there isn't anything going on in the area at the present moment, but cloud cover is approaching from the south. Forecasted temperatures in the 70's with dewpoints struggling to reach the mid 50's has me scratching my head at both of the target areas. It is a pretty safe bet to say that I will not be chasing today, but I will still keep a watchful eye to the western target area in case something changes. I think both target areas today should be able to see some severe weather. Best chances for tornadic storms is in the better moisture availability in Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something go up in the High Plains of CO/KS/NE.

I am scratching my head about tomorrow's setup also. Tomorrow there is a stronger cap to play with which could help or hinder the development process. Relative Humidity at 700mb is relatively dry south of I-70 making anything in that area conditional for development. But the way it looks, best chances for discrete severe weather and tornado potential are north of I-70 and south of I-80 and east of the dryline. If the cap can be broken south of I-70, storms will be stronger than those that fire north of the highway. Perhaps this day could be a tail-end charlie day? If I chase tomorrow, it will be the third time I will head out for a chase on April 24th (chased 4/24/03 and 4/24/07).

EDIT (12:20PM): New Day 2 out and highlights a majority of central/eastern Kansas and south central/southeastern Nebraska in a moderate risk area. The end of the Day 2 outlook has caught my attention:

TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. BUT...A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IS PROGGED TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ENLARGING OF CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TO SUPPORT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT TORNADIC ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE MID/UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

Looks like chasing on Thursday is becoming more likely and I have now officially called off any chasing for today unless something local pops up.

Did ya feel it???

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 17:37:00 +0000

I was still awake at 4:40AM this morning tooling around with my new video camera and what not and the house shook for a few seconds! Turns out I was not as tired as I thought I was and it was the real thing as a 5.2 earthquake was epicentered in southern Illinois. The earthquake was felt as far as central Kansas. It is safe to say that this was the first earthquake I have ever felt in my life...and I checked on my girls right after the quake who just slept through the whole thing...

Take a look at the 12Z GFS? Opposite of the 0Z. Guess we got to wait for some run to run consistency.

On impulse...

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Fri, 18 Apr 2008 06:34:00 +0000

On an impulse move today, I returned the Canon HG10 hard disk drive HD camcorder that I bought back in February from Costco (they give you a 90 day return policy)... I wasn't going to remain camcorderless for long so I took a small trip up the street to the Johnson County library and got on the computer and ordered a Canon HV30 HDV camcorder from Circuit City (they have it for $879. and I had a 8% off AAA coupon which dropped the total to $810.). I picked up the camcorder on the way back home from the library and have yet to mess around with it... Looks like I might need to go to Sam's Club or Costco and pick up a bulk of some miniDV tapes for the interesting week coming up. At least, now, video editing will be much easier using the miniDV system rather than the AVCHD codec (lame).

The 0Z April 18 GFS model has sure taken some very enticing and interesting strides at the severe weather potential for the upcoming week...bringing it closer to home! Of course I will still not go in to much detail as it is still a ways off and the NAM starts to pick it up tomorrow with Monday's SVR potential. But...looking very interesting...to say the least. I have taken out Sunday on the chase status as the potential is not too much there for any severe weather as the focus shifts more from the time period of Monday-Wednesday.

New video setup on VORTEXpursuit.com Live!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Thu, 17 Apr 2008 07:49:00 +0000

It is early Thursday morning and I have been tooling around with a cheap $12.00 tripod I picked up at Wal Mart yesterday. It is now redneckishly (that's not a word) attached to my RAM-Mount desk in my Xterra by none other than electrical tape. The tripod is going to hold my old MiniDV camcorder which will now be the primary video device for the VORTEXpursuit.com Live Video streaming. I did some testing and the camcorder provides a more crisp and adjustable image for the Live Video streaming and the tripod holds well. I am looking forward to trying this setup along with our new streaming video provider on the next chase...

Quite the confusing forecast ahead as there is a chance for some severe weather anywhere in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe through the central and southern Plains States. Mainly going to be a southern Plains event, it appears that the best chances of severe storms will be along and south of a stalled frontal boundary to setup along I-44. The warm sector becomes more unstable on Tuesday then on Monday, and surfaces winds are more backed on Tuesday than on Monday, so it appears at the moment that Tuesday may hold better severe potential. As it is 120-144 hours out at the moment, will not go in to details or target areas. I am only able to chase one day out of next week's probabilities and I am most considering Tuesday due to some issues with my work and getting somebody to cover my shift...as my work week goes from Saturday-Tuesday.

The Down Week!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 13 Apr 2008 17:03:00 +0000

This week appears to be a down week in terms of any storm chasing... After we make it through tonight's forecasted low temperatures below the freezing mark, we are setting sail on a great warm-up throughout eastern Kansas and western Missouri as temperatures reach into the 70's. A cold front should pass through late mid-week dropping temperatures only briefly before temperatures begin to warm-up as next weekend approaches.

Next week surely does look interesting as severe weather could make a return to the Plains. The cold front passing through mid-week should not have any good moisture to work with so any chances of severe weather are very minimal. But the system that is forecasted for the weekend (Sunday and days beyond) has Gulf moisture returning with full force. 500mb winds could be better than what they are forecasted, but since the system is at 180 hours out, won't go much into detail.

This week, being a down week, is allowing for some more work on the website. If anybody had wondered around the site, you might have noticed that the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page had been redone, along with links on the Links page and more. More is to come this week.

Warm Weather Ahead!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Fri, 11 Apr 2008 20:50:00 +0000

But first it must snow! We have some snow showers in the forecast for the rest of the day into tonight in the Kansas City metro area...that's always fun!

Yesterday's chase was a bust as I chased up into the Chillicothe, Missouri area. Nothing too exciting occuring in the chase, but there is always next time...

Upcoming severe weather?? Doesn't look like anything coming soon, but the prospects of temperatures into the mid to upper 70s coming is enough to make me happy.

I am also in the middle of doing some more site work on the website. I updated the coding on the current position mapping where it now centers automatically on our position when the position is updated at or around every 10 seconds. I got to do some more site work within the next few days as a down time from severe weather looks very likely.

Chasing tomorrow!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Thu, 10 Apr 2008 03:29:00 +0000

I am not at Code Red yet, very highly likely it will be tomorrow morning...

Quite the variety of target areas still exist, but it appears that a drive throughout the Show-Me State is going to be happening as a dryline associated with a strong storm system moves to the east through the state. I'm still digesting the 0Z run of the NAM, still awaiting the 0Z GFS...but quite the interesting day shaping up for tomorrow. It's going to be a long day.

Upcoming Severe Weather

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:32:00 +0000

I was going to post the upcoming severe weather on the same chase log post below, but I am going to make it a different post. All in all, we have 2 days of severe weather on our hands, tomorrow and Thursday.

Wednesday looks like a pretty decent day shaping up over west central Texas, heading into southwest Texas. As I have work obligations (2 mandatory meetings and the such), I am unable to chase this event.

Thursday looks like a very interesting day shaping up over areas from KS/MO all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Arkansas, the king of dangerous weather this year, is poised to receive another dangerous brunt of severe weather. With storm motions approaching 80kts, not even the best of cars can out-run any severe weather in the Arkansas terrain. Looks like KS/MO could also get some severe weather per the 12Z NAM/WRF. I will continue to watch the models and adjust the code green status as newer model information is digested.

First tornado warned storm of the year!

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Tue, 08 Apr 2008 17:15:00 +0000

VORTEXpursuit.com Live was up for the most part yesterday, as I had live video streaming for about 8+ hours during the chase! I intercepted the tornado warned storm in Wichita County, TX yesterday, albeit a little too late to get to the tornadoes. But nonetheless, the storm had excellent structure! I observed some mild rotation to the east of Electra, TX along US Highway 287, but as the storm moved to the east it was slowly weakening. The storm had an impressive radar signature for a while, and clearly showed a hook for a duration of its life. After that storm weakened, there wasn't much to the rest of the day and called it a day and went home.

Images from yesterday's chase: (left was of rotation east of Electra, TX, right was the supercell structure as I was driving west on US 287 west of Wichita Falls, TX). (click images for bigger)

Miles traveled yesterday: 1,030

New counties visited for the first time: Logan (OK), Oklahoma (OK), Cleveland (OK), Grady (OK), Caddo (OK), Comanche (OK), Cotton (OK), Wichita (TX)

Tomorrow's SVR Potential

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:48:00 +0000

Tomorrow just seemed to crawl out of the woodwork but the latest models runs have been consistent with showing a deep surface low pressure (996-999mb) in the E TX panhandle/W OK by 0Z Tuesday. A triple point/sharp dryline will set up in front of the system in west central Oklahoma and a warm front to the north (looks like around the KS/OK border). Questions on moisture return still prevail but with Td's already at 55 degrees in Gainesville, TX as of 5PM, those questions may become less of a concern. Directional shear present, along with moderate to high instability, and backing of H85 winds lead me to believe that this could become a decent severe weather day. SPC is already mentioning of a possible moderate risk when the new Day 1 outlook comes out at 1AM. I will make a decision regarding chasing after the 0Z runs come out, but in all, looks like the first real chase of the year! So far the target area is along a line from Woodward, OK, to Clinton, to Burns Flat. (It will be kinda neat to visit Burns Flat as my dad was stationed there at the former Air Force base that was located at the city.)

In other news, KU and Memphis going after the title. I will take chasing over the game, as I will just record the game on my HD DVR to watch later.

Site updates

noreply@blogger.com (VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing) — Sat, 05 Apr 2008 20:32:00 +0000

I finally got around with trying to figure out how to integrate my GPS position onto my website. After constantly searching all around the net, I finally gave up and asked others on Stormtrack if they knew who to do it (I know most people had their own custom made VB programs or the such, and my programming experience with VB has been dwindling since the high school days). I use GPSGate and finally figured out, thanks to Charles Edwards, that GPSGate.com allows you to get your position on to your website...Good stuff! So now, the coding for the GPS tracker is on the Alert page (a page that takes place of our main page during a Code Red), and on the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page. I have been considering merging the alert page and the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page as I see nothing but redundancy on having two pages look almost exactly the same. I'll probably do that tomorrow...so anybody who has my VORTEXpursuit.com Live page bookmarked, it will probably be gone tomorrow so update accordingly!

But anywho, other than the site updates, potential severe weather is forecasted for the next week. Lots of hoops to go through on this potential as there are drawbacks to all of the setups. I am still going to remain on a code green until the details of the upcoming systems get hammered out and the models come more in alignment with each other. I am currently watching Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday for potential severe weather. I have the option of either Monday or Tuesday off at the moment as I did a shift change with one of my co-workers and worked for her yesterday...so I have a Monday option open if need be. I also have Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday off for anything that pops up during that timeframe.