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Sunday, May 25, 2008

Chase of May 22/23

Wow, so many things I did wrong and quite a few tornadoes I missed out on due to positioning and getting stuck in the mud...but I did manage to see at least 1 tornado (the other was a rain wrapped tornado with numerous power flashes, though could not confirm a visual)

May 22 ended up with me being stuck in the mud for 2 hours in the middle of nowhere Kansas! I didn't have a cell phone signal to boot, but I had my internet connection working so I loaded up the storm chasing chat room and asked people in there if they could get in contact with somebody for me to get me pulled out. Low and behold with their help, volunteer fire fighters and a nice gentleman with his tractor pulled me out. NW Kansas hospitality is wonderful and a life saver. Needless to say, no tornadoes observed that day as I missed the Hoxie wedge by a minute as I encountered down power lines along US-24 just west of town.

May 23 ended up being a little better as I did get to see a tornado or two but a wealth of positioning mistakes and mistakes on my part cost me a few more tornadoes. If I would have been patient and followed storms that I had originally been on, I would have tracked the tornado near Quinter, and one near Shields, along with countless others... But I ended up in Ness County where I had very friendly encounters with LEO, especially with a sheriff and his wife who were in a marked patrol vehicle who I chatted with and provided radar updates for about 5-10 minutes showing him a supercell that was tracking northeastward into his county. He went off to the SE towards Ness City, and then I followed to boot a few minutes later. I intercepted this storm S of Ness City and then followed it north and then west, and then east, and then back north again where I reported a tornado on the ground NNE of town on the Spotter Network. I followed the storm east on K-4 where all I could see was power flash after power flash but no visual on a tornado. This tornado, I believe, turned into a wedge and headed for the Cedar Bluff lake. With nighttime falling, I discontinued the chase and drove back home. It was a scary site driving through the communities of Hays and Ness City with sirens going off, also with hearing reports of a large tornado near Greensburg (and I thought, not again..).

Overall, if I could repeat this chase, I would change so much on what I screwed up. Even though I did not come out empty handed, I am not too happy with this multiple day chase. Oh well, there is always more to come this year... I met up with Fred Plowman from Olathe (he says that he sees me all the time on chases...and this is very true!). He showed me video of the wedge he got near Hoxie, KS from Thursday, quite impressive I could say. He also told me how he also got stuck in the mud on Thursday, not for 2 hours like my experience, but for 18 HOURS! Wow, I would have lost my mind then... I also waved at the TornadoLive team with Dick McGowan at the wheel as I always seem to see them every chase now-a-days too! There are always a lot of chasers out in these storms but these two I seem to always see all the time! Wicked!

Tomorrow looks like a doozy forecasting, but I might be heading out for the chase, regardless, as it seems that a closer to home risk may be in store for some tornadoes along a southward moving front. A frontal chase...I am going to have to take a second look at that...more to come soon!
Thursday, May 22, 2008

Chasing Today/Tomorrow

Be sure to check out VORTEXpursuit.com Live for the latest status on today and tomorrow's chasing activities!



http://www.vortexpursuit.com/live.html



12Z NAM from this morning showing slower storm motions, 500mb winds veering more to the SW (instead of the due S winds) for targets south of I-70, and dewpoints in the middle 60s. Instability is lower than on previous model runs, but should still definitely be a worthwhile day in terms of chasing. Stay tuned on VORTEXpursuit.com Live for the latest updates as the blog is usually not updated during chasing activity...
Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Upcoming Severe (THU-FRI)

It so far appears that I will be chasing a severe weather setup that is poised to impact the western portions of Kansas into southwestern Nebraska this coming Thursday and Friday.

On Thursday, a surface low pressure system will deepen during the day as the 18Z NAM model run from today shows a reading of 982mb centered somewhere in SE Colorado or SW Kansas. Each model run has been moving this system a little more to the south and east which is good for me as that means a shorter drive than what was forecasted previously. A concern about the setup on Thursday is the high LCL levels which could lead to a much lower chance for surface based storms. I feel that the best chances for storms will be near the warm front/dryline intersect where LCL levels will be at the lowest; target as of right now will be along the Kansas/Nebraska border somewhere in the rectangle of Oberlin, Kansas and McCook, Nebraska to Smith Center, Kansas and Franklin, Nebraska. Any storms that fire along the dryline will most likely be elevated as LCL levels exceed 1000m. I will keep tune to the models and adjust targets accordingly.

Friday appears to be a better day for obtaining tornadic supercells than on Thursday. LCL levels appear to be lower than on Thursday, but there is quite the difference between the 12Z and the 18Z model runs that has me scratching my head. I'll divulge more about Friday on future blog entries.

So far, it looks like a go for storm chasing on Thursday and Friday as I intend to leave Gardner by 8AM on Thursday, hoping to head back into town early Saturday morning. Unless Saturday looks more interesting than what it does now, that is the plan.

In other news, these blog entries are being cross posted onto my blog on the MyFOXKC Community Blog section. The official blog is on the VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing website at www.vortexpursuit.com/blog.html .

There is a video on LiveLeak that has caught my eye as my kids think it is funny! Check it out as a girl screams for her mom as she was caught shoplifting and being held outside of a store: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=cbc_1210935918
Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Today's Severe

I have decided to sit out any chasing today...

This comes after a lot of factors that weren't coming together to warrant any tornado potential. There were a lot of things that turned me off to the system, most notably was the unidrectional wind profile above 850mb. This thing was screaming at my face as a potential squall line. Also of note is the very relatively dry 700mb layer, with relative humidities at or around 10-30% for the extent of the frontal system. Surface moisture was there, but the mid layer moisture just wasn't around to help the storms sustain themselves.

Looks like nothing on the horizon for a while, severe weather wise, so it'll be back to playing GTA IV and Mario Kart.
Sunday, May 11, 2008

Severe Events of May 10, 2008


It is always unfortunate to hear of the loss of life when it comes to tornadoes. It appears as though, that there has been 19 unconfirmed fatalities in Missouri and Oklahoma as a result of a single long-track supercell that spawned multiple tornadoes from Chetopa, Kansas to the Ozarks of Missouri. This long-tracked supercell was just barely inside of the original Day 1 SPC Convective Outlook area for tornadic activity (right on the edge of the 2% line--see map on left). This supercell and spawned tornadoes did extensive damage to the town of Picher, Oklahoma, which is located right on the Kansas/Oklahoma State Line along US Highway 69. 5 people were killed in the community. As the storm progressed eastward into Missouri, it did a number on westbound cars on I-44 as many had spidered windshields and the such from the golf ball sized hail reported along the highway. The storm went on into Newton County, Missouri, causing at least 13 unconfirmed fatalities near the towns of Racine and Seneca. The very deadly year for tornadoes continues...my thoughts are with those who were affected by the storms.
I managed to get out and chase this event. I managed to photograph one tornado near Oswego, Kansas and tried my best to intercept the long-tracked supercell near Chetopa but the speed of the storm combined with the east-southeasterly movement made it impossible for intercept. Chase log is up at: http://www.vortexpursuit.com/2008-0510.html


Sunday, May 4, 2008

Greensburg Anniversary and Wednesday

Today AOA 9:50PM will mark exactly one year since the devestating EF-5 leveled 95% of the town of Greensburg in Kiowa County, Kansas. I still remember that May 4th in 2007. I was at work, dreading the missed chasing opportunity that I had told my co-workers a week in advance that I was probably not going to be at work that day... President Bush was in Greensburg to head the commencement address at the local high school, and a wealth of festivals, ground-breakings, and the such have been going on in the town to mark the one year anniversary.

Now...we have a very interesting weather scenario panning out this coming Wednesday. The models are having a very hard time coming to grips with this system, and feel that they are suffering from convective feedback which the models seem to want to downplay the events on Wednesday. The NAM, GFS, and the ECMWF are in general agreement on the position on the surface low and upper level system, but that's basically about it. The finer details of the day, from temperatures, dewpoints, etc. are not being handled well as is evident by the wide array of forecasts produced by the models. We will see how the models progress on this system on further model runs. I already have the day off (usual 3 days off on work week) so will be looking forward to see how this system pans out and to plan for a potential chasing opportunity.
Friday, May 2, 2008

Yesterday's Chase and Morning Wind

Though it was not technically a bust as all varieties of severe weather were observed, except a tornado, it was a fun chase throughout the southeastern part of the state as I observed multiple wall clouds and some decent rotation at times. I chased near the town of Fredonia, northeast to Chanute during the day. I called off the chase at 9:00PM despite the tornado warning just to my east in Allen County, because I am not much of a fan in chasing nighttime situations.

At 1:30AM, a severe storm blew through Gardner with 70-75 MPH winds (I measured a gust of 74 MPH on the Kestrel, which is a minimal hurricane). This line of storms packed a punch on the northland of the Kansas City area with some significant damage reported in Gladstone. NWS EAX will be out today performing some storm assessments to see if there was a possible tornado up there.

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