Note: This blog is generally NOT updated during chasing activity. To find out the latest happenings when we are out chasing, including live streaming video and current GPS position,
visit VORTEXpursuit.com Live.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Forecast for 5/1.
If The NAM/WRF is right......then everybody and their mother will be in northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas along I-35 on Thursday afternoon. The 12Z model data which now goes out to the aforementioned storm shows the frontal boundary and dryline intersect about halfway from the Oklahoma/Kansas border to Oklahoma City along I-35. Northeast of this feature, the model breaks out some precipitation, along with the model showing SSE surface winds and a not as powerful LLJ that the GFS model from last night was forecasting. The model veers H85 winds a tad to the SSW, but leaves 925mb winds due to the south which should be an alright ideal. The model could be overdoing the dewpoints as just about 70 degree Td's may be hard to reach, but should that verify, watch out! Showing a moist layer at H7 and at H85, should not think that the cap is an issue in this area, but further south along the dryline, the layers are drier and the cap becomes more of a hinder for thunderstorm development in that area. According to Earl's model site, the severe parameters including the STP are maximized in this area so if this model verifies, watch out again!
It still appears that the 12Z GFS model is a little more quicker on the situation on Thursday and a little more northerly as it puts the dryline/frontal intercept in SE Kansas. With the NAM/WRF showing less 0-1km SRH due to the weaker LLJ, the GFS still maintains its stronger wind speeds in the crucial level.
But, for now, still feel that there are still some considerable model differences including the position of the dryline/frontal boundary intercept and the strength of the LLJ which will then dictate where the storms will develop, what mode of development will happen, and how strong. NAM/WRF favors an area in north central Oklahoma into extreme southern Kansas, while the GFS still prefers an area in east central Kansas southward to northeast Oklahoma. Further model runs will hopefully hose in an agreement on the location of the best severe features. Either way, both areas depicted by the models are decent chasing areas and the storms should be moving at chasable speeds. Still looks like a decent severe weather setup on tap for the 1st of May.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/28/2008 11:53:00 AM
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Thursday, April 24, 2008
Blue Sky Bust!
As I had some obligations to tend to this evening (picking up my kids from their mom at Melvern Lake by 11:00PM), I did not get to do any of the nighttime chasing that is currently going on at the moment in the northern part of the state. Today, though, for me can be summed up in 3 words:
Blue Sky Bust.
Not a cloud in the sky in Larned as the cap held its course throughout the day for those who braved the southern target area. Perhaps I should have evaluated the H7 relative humidity forecast map which showed a majority of south central Kansas at 20% or less humidity. That dry air sure put a hinder on today's development. But, fear not!!! There is another chasing opportunity that appears to be coming around next Thursday.
Edit 4/25 @ 1:36PM: I should have went with my original target area as I wrote this around 11:30PM on Wednesday: Discussion: Interesting situation shaping up today at a dryline/frontal intersection somewhere in southern Nebraska or northern Kansas from McCook, NE to Norton, KS. Looks likely that storms will fire at the triple point and then gradually south along the dryline as the late afternoon progresses into the evening. Things will get much more interesting as the evening progresses into the overnight hours before the storms congeal into a massive MCS on its trek eastward.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/24/2008 11:50:00 PM
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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Tough Call Today/Tomorrow
Wow, I haven't updated the blog in almost a week...
The period of today/tomorrow in terms of severe weather is a tough call regarding where and if to chase. Most of the Moderate Risk area highlighted by the recent Day 1 outlook by the SPC is sitting under cloud cover and developing convection. This is going to make it tough for the area to become unstable for the fuel for any afternoon convection. Going to the other target area, by the surface low in the area of eastern Colorado to southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, there isn't anything going on in the area at the present moment, but cloud cover is approaching from the south. Forecasted temperatures in the 70's with dewpoints struggling to reach the mid 50's has me scratching my head at both of the target areas. It is a pretty safe bet to say that I will not be chasing today, but I will still keep a watchful eye to the western target area in case something changes. I think both target areas today should be able to see some severe weather. Best chances for tornadic storms is in the better moisture availability in Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something go up in the High Plains of CO/KS/NE.
I am scratching my head about tomorrow's setup also. Tomorrow there is a stronger cap to play with which could help or hinder the development process. Relative Humidity at 700mb is relatively dry south of I-70 making anything in that area conditional for development. But the way it looks, best chances for discrete severe weather and tornado potential are north of I-70 and south of I-80 and east of the dryline. If the cap can be broken south of I-70, storms will be stronger than those that fire north of the highway. Perhaps this day could be a tail-end charlie day? If I chase tomorrow, it will be the third time I will head out for a chase on April 24th (chased 4/24/03 and 4/24/07).
EDIT (12:20PM): New Day 2 out and highlights a majority of central/eastern Kansas and south central/southeastern Nebraska in a moderate risk area. The end of the Day 2 outlook has caught my attention:
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. BUT...A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IS PROGGED TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ENLARGING OF CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TO SUPPORT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT TORNADIC ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE MID/UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. Looks like chasing on Thursday is becoming more likely and I have now officially called off any chasing for today unless something local pops up.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/23/2008 09:45:00 AM
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Friday, April 18, 2008
Did ya feel it???
I was still awake at 4:40AM this morning tooling around with my new video camera and what not and the house shook for a few seconds! Turns out I was not as tired as I thought I was and it was the real thing as a 5.2 earthquake was epicentered in southern Illinois. The earthquake was felt as far as central Kansas. It is safe to say that this was the first earthquake I have ever felt in my life...and I checked on my girls right after the quake who just slept through the whole thing...
Take a look at the 12Z GFS? Opposite of the 0Z. Guess we got to wait for some run to run consistency.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/18/2008 12:37:00 PM
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On impulse...
On an impulse move today, I returned the Canon HG10 hard disk drive HD camcorder that I bought back in February from Costco (they give you a 90 day return policy)... I wasn't going to remain camcorderless for long so I took a small trip up the street to the Johnson County library and got on the computer and ordered a Canon HV30 HDV camcorder from Circuit City (they have it for $879. and I had a 8% off AAA coupon which dropped the total to $810.). I picked up the camcorder on the way back home from the library and have yet to mess around with it... Looks like I might need to go to Sam's Club or Costco and pick up a bulk of some miniDV tapes for the interesting week coming up. At least, now, video editing will be much easier using the miniDV system rather than the AVCHD codec (lame).
The 0Z April 18 GFS model has sure taken some very enticing and interesting strides at the severe weather potential for the upcoming week...bringing it closer to home! Of course I will still not go in to much detail as it is still a ways off and the NAM starts to pick it up tomorrow with Monday's SVR potential. But...looking very interesting...to say the least. I have taken out Sunday on the chase status as the potential is not too much there for any severe weather as the focus shifts more from the time period of Monday-Wednesday.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/18/2008 01:34:00 AM
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Thursday, April 17, 2008
New video setup on VORTEXpursuit.com Live!
It is early Thursday morning and I have been tooling around with a cheap $12.00 tripod I picked up at Wal Mart yesterday. It is now redneckishly (that's not a word) attached to my RAM-Mount desk in my Xterra by none other than electrical tape. The tripod is going to hold my old MiniDV camcorder which will now be the primary video device for the VORTEXpursuit.com Live Video streaming. I did some testing and the camcorder provides a more crisp and adjustable image for the Live Video streaming and the tripod holds well. I am looking forward to trying this setup along with our new streaming video provider on the next chase...
Quite the confusing forecast ahead as there is a chance for some severe weather anywhere in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe through the central and southern Plains States. Mainly going to be a southern Plains event, it appears that the best chances of severe storms will be along and south of a stalled frontal boundary to setup along I-44. The warm sector becomes more unstable on Tuesday then on Monday, and surfaces winds are more backed on Tuesday than on Monday, so it appears at the moment that Tuesday may hold better severe potential. As it is 120-144 hours out at the moment, will not go in to details or target areas. I am only able to chase one day out of next week's probabilities and I am most considering Tuesday due to some issues with my work and getting somebody to cover my shift...as my work week goes from Saturday-Tuesday.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/17/2008 02:49:00 AM
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
The Down Week!
This week appears to be a down week in terms of any storm chasing... After we make it through tonight's forecasted low temperatures below the freezing mark, we are setting sail on a great warm-up throughout eastern Kansas and western Missouri as temperatures reach into the 70's. A cold front should pass through late mid-week dropping temperatures only briefly before temperatures begin to warm-up as next weekend approaches.
Next week surely does look interesting as severe weather could make a return to the Plains. The cold front passing through mid-week should not have any good moisture to work with so any chances of severe weather are very minimal. But the system that is forecasted for the weekend (Sunday and days beyond) has Gulf moisture returning with full force. 500mb winds could be better than what they are forecasted, but since the system is at 180 hours out, won't go much into detail.
This week, being a down week, is allowing for some more work on the website. If anybody had wondered around the site, you might have noticed that the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page had been redone, along with links on the Links page and more. More is to come this week.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/13/2008 12:03:00 PM
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Friday, April 11, 2008
Warm Weather Ahead!
But first it must snow! We have some snow showers in the forecast for the rest of the day into tonight in the Kansas City metro area...that's always fun!
Yesterday's chase was a bust as I chased up into the Chillicothe, Missouri area. Nothing too exciting occuring in the chase, but there is always next time...
Upcoming severe weather?? Doesn't look like anything coming soon, but the prospects of temperatures into the mid to upper 70s coming is enough to make me happy.
I am also in the middle of doing some more site work on the website. I updated the coding on the current position mapping where it now centers automatically on our position when the position is updated at or around every 10 seconds. I got to do some more site work within the next few days as a down time from severe weather looks very likely.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/11/2008 03:50:00 PM
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Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Chasing tomorrow!
I am not at Code Red yet, very highly likely it will be tomorrow morning...
Quite the variety of target areas still exist, but it appears that a drive throughout the Show-Me State is going to be happening as a dryline associated with a strong storm system moves to the east through the state. I'm still digesting the 0Z run of the NAM, still awaiting the 0Z GFS...but quite the interesting day shaping up for tomorrow. It's going to be a long day.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/09/2008 10:29:00 PM
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Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Upcoming Severe Weather
I was going to post the upcoming severe weather on the same chase log post below, but I am going to make it a different post. All in all, we have 2 days of severe weather on our hands, tomorrow and Thursday.
Wednesday looks like a pretty decent day shaping up over west central Texas, heading into southwest Texas. As I have work obligations (
2 mandatory meetings and the such), I am unable to chase this event.
Thursday looks like a very interesting day shaping up over areas from KS/MO all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Arkansas, the king of dangerous weather this year, is poised to receive another dangerous brunt of severe weather. With storm motions approaching 80kts, not even the best of cars can out-run any severe weather in the Arkansas terrain. Looks like KS/MO could also get some severe weather per the 12Z NAM/WRF. I will continue to watch the models and adjust the code green status as newer model information is digested.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/08/2008 12:32:00 PM
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First tornado warned storm of the year!
VORTEXpursuit.com Live was up for the most part yesterday, as I had live video streaming for about 8+ hours during the chase! I intercepted the tornado warned storm in Wichita County, TX yesterday, albeit a little too late to get to the tornadoes. But nonetheless, the storm had excellent structure! I observed some mild rotation to the east of Electra, TX along US Highway 287, but as the storm moved to the east it was slowly weakening. The storm had an impressive radar signature for a while, and clearly showed a hook for a duration of its life. After that storm weakened, there wasn't much to the rest of the day and called it a day and went home.
Images from yesterday's chase: (left was of rotation east of Electra, TX, right was the supercell structure as I was driving west on US 287 west of Wichita Falls, TX). (click images for bigger)
Miles traveled yesterday: 1,030
New counties visited for the first time: Logan (OK), Oklahoma (OK), Cleveland (OK), Grady (OK), Caddo (OK), Comanche (OK), Cotton (OK), Wichita (TX)
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/08/2008 12:15:00 PM
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Sunday, April 6, 2008
Tomorrow's SVR Potential
Tomorrow just seemed to crawl out of the woodwork but the latest models runs have been consistent with showing a deep surface low pressure (996-999mb) in the E TX panhandle/W OK by 0Z Tuesday. A triple point/sharp dryline will set up in front of the system in west central Oklahoma and a warm front to the north (looks like around the KS/OK border). Questions on moisture return still prevail but with Td's already at 55 degrees in Gainesville, TX as of 5PM, those questions may become less of a concern. Directional shear present, along with moderate to high instability, and backing of H85 winds lead me to believe that this could become a decent severe weather day. SPC is already mentioning of a possible moderate risk when the new Day 1 outlook comes out at 1AM. I will make a decision regarding chasing after the 0Z runs come out, but in all, looks like the first real chase of the year! So far the target area is along a line from Woodward, OK, to Clinton, to Burns Flat. (It will be kinda neat to visit Burns Flat as my dad was stationed there at the former Air Force base that was located at the city.)
In other news, KU and Memphis going after the title. I will take chasing over the game, as I will just record the game on my HD DVR to watch later.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/06/2008 04:48:00 PM
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Saturday, April 5, 2008
Site updates
I finally got around with trying to figure out how to integrate my GPS position onto my website. After constantly searching all around the net, I finally gave up and asked others on Stormtrack if they knew who to do it (I know most people had their own custom made VB programs or the such, and my programming experience with VB has been dwindling since the high school days). I use GPSGate and finally figured out, thanks to Charles Edwards, that GPSGate.com allows you to get your position on to your website...Good stuff! So now, the coding for the GPS tracker is on the Alert page (a page that takes place of our main page during a Code Red), and on the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page. I have been considering merging the alert page and the VORTEXpursuit.com Live page as I see nothing but redundancy on having two pages look almost exactly the same. I'll probably do that tomorrow...so anybody who has my VORTEXpursuit.com Live page bookmarked, it will probably be gone tomorrow so update accordingly!
But anywho, other than the site updates, potential severe weather is forecasted for the next week. Lots of hoops to go through on this potential as there are drawbacks to all of the setups. I am still going to remain on a code green until the details of the upcoming systems get hammered out and the models come more in alignment with each other. I am currently watching Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday for potential severe weather. I have the option of either Monday or Tuesday off at the moment as I did a shift change with one of my co-workers and worked for her yesterday...so I have a Monday option open if need be. I also have Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday off for anything that pops up during that timeframe.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/05/2008 03:32:00 PM
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Thursday, April 3, 2008
Chasing Today
First of all...I did not go chasing today. Some factors beyond my control prevented me from chasing today's setup, but good luck to all those who are currently out right now, there is an interesting storm as of this writing in northern Young County, TX which is located to the south of Wichita Falls, TX. Spotter Network reveals a good amount of chasers heading to the storm at the moment. Looks like this is the storm to be on.
Looking into the future, storms possible on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. I will go more into this in a little.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/03/2008 05:28:00 PM
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Tuesday, April 1, 2008
No April Foolin' Here!
It's April Fool's Day, but it's no April Foolin' that the SPC has some interesting wording on their Day 3 outlook. SPC mentioned a possible moderate risk may be needed should the models continue what was forecasted last night. I have been monitoring Thursday since last week's Thursday and the 0Z model runs have highlighted on what might be a very good shot at getting some severe weather in Oklahoma and into northern Texas. Thursday, falling right in the middle of my usual 3 days off on my work week and right smack on payday, has led me to raise the probablility of myself storm chasing to 50% and also to a code yellow. I have already made arrangements a while back and I have somebody to watch my kids that day so I am all ready to go dependent on what the future model runs hold for the system.
Taking a gander at the 12Z model run which just came in, a very sharp dryline with associated bulge should be taking shape near or just north of the Red River on Thursday at or near Lawton, OK/Wichita Falls, TX by 0Z Friday. The warm front along a line just north of Lawton to Ardmore. Moderate instability ahead of the dryline with very aqeuate shear will lead to the development of discrete storms with supercells very likely. Very steep lapse rates will also contribute to a very large hail threat. Shear vectors just about perpendicular to the dryline will contribute to possibilities of rotating supercells and tornadoes and with SRH at high values, large tornadoes are very possible. The GFS hasn't come in yet, but the 0Z had the system a little more to the north, a desirable ideal for me at least, since it is closer, but to sum it up, this system looks very interesting and one I am keeping a very close eye on with a likelihood that I will be chasing it. It will likely be the first chase that VORTEXpursuit.com LIVE will be active, with live video streaming and pictures every minute. Stay tuned!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/01/2008 09:20:00 AM
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