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Monday, March 31, 2008
Upcoming Severe Potential
I attempted to go chasing today, but I made it as far as near Louisburg, KS when I decided to call off going any further. Good choice as all the day has been so far in Kansas and Missouri have been linear convection with a few, and I say few embedded supercells that prompted a few tornado warnings. I won't call today an official chase for my records since Louisburg, KS is about 25 miles from Gardner, KS.
But anyhow, there is another chance of severe weather coming up in the middle part of this week. A sharp dryline will set up with a surface storm system in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas. NAM has the forecasted system a little more south than the GFS, the GFS is setting up a triple point closer to Oklahoma City/Norman, while the NAM is setting up its triple point south of the Red River. I will be able to chase something near Oklahoma City, but with the NAM model, it is probable that I won't be able to go. It is 72-84 hours out on the models right now, and a lot can change, so stay tuned. The VORTEXpursuit.com Chase Status drops back to a code green as we monitor this system.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/31/2008 04:12:00 PM
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Sunday, March 30, 2008
Today and Tomorrow's SVR Potential
I decided against chasing today because of the very very tiny window of getting something to initiate before it gets dark out. Overall the setup appears that it could produce a few tornadoes, the moisture is there as Enid is reporting a Td of 63 degrees at 2PM. There is a noticable dewpoint spread with a 63 degree dewpoint in Alva, OK and only a 38 degree dewpoint in Gage, OK, the difference between the towns is ~55 miles. The Spotter Network overlay on GRLevel3 is showing everybody and their mother out today banking on today's severe storm chances. As of this writing, there are a lot of chasers on I-40 between the OK/TX state line and Oklahoma City. According to the 18Z RUC run, instability will get to its peak at 0Z in WC Oklahoma southward towards the Red River. Most say that the low level jet needs to kick in so that storms can develop by I am not seeing it on the RUC model. I don't have much forecast ability, but I am continuing to learn... But good luck to all those out today, hopefully we can get something fired and produce before the sun goes down.
Tomorrow is though, a different story in terms of when storms will be able to initiate. Storms appear likely to be on-going during the morning/afternoon hours leaving a probable concern on any recovery that is possible so that stronger storms can develop during the day. Looks like a target area of SE Kansas/NE Oklahoma into SW Missouri is in store. At the 12Z NAM run, looks like the 250m-6km shear vectors will be roughly parallel to the frontal boundary from east central Kansas northward, an almost evident squall line formation. But., further south into SE Kansas, NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri, the vectors become more perpendicular (though not totally perpendicular) to the boundary equating to a possible shot of discrete supercell development. Either way, I am going to look at further model runs as time progresses. Anybody chasing tomorrow better have some rocket boosters as these storms will be moving at a clip. More on tomorrow later.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/30/2008 02:20:00 PM
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Saturday, March 29, 2008
CPSWS wrapup and Sunday (3/30)/Monday (3/31)
On the way to Lincoln, Nebraska this morning as I head past Nebraska City.
Darin Brunin from Tornadolive.com being interviewed. He and Dick McGowan had their own booth where sales of the Storm of 2007 DVD were occuring. They were also selling some of their best photos.
Mike Umscheid from Underthemeso.com and the Dodge City NWS gives his presentation on the Greensburg tornado. A very enlightening presentation indeed. His blog is linked below on the blog links section.
I will put more pictures and stuff on a separate page on the website, look for that soon! All in all, a very good symposium, very informative and lots of good pictures in the hallway by the Lincoln Camera Club.
In regards to the upcoming severe weather, I have raised my storm chasing status to a Code Yellow as the severe weather days near. I am still
VERY skeptical on the severe weather potential on Sunday as it looks to be an after dark show. Monday, I feel, has better potential as long as we can get the shear to be more perpendicular to the boundary. Daytime tornadoes are more possible with Monday's setup compared to that of Sunday. More later when the 0Z runs come in.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/29/2008 07:05:00 PM
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Friday, March 28, 2008
Sunday 3/30 SVR Potential
I am at a cross between attending the CPSWS in Lincoln, NE on Saturday or haggling somebody for a day switch at work and going into work on Saturday and take Sunday off and go chasing in W Oklahoma. I can only do ONE event.
Sunday looks decent for a storm chasing opportunity in SW or W central Oklahoma, but I am not too excited about having to make the quick drive back to Kansas City and get to Overland Park by 5:15AM on Monday morning to pick up my kids. I will take a glance at the model runs tonight and make a decision regarding the weekend's activities. But, it looks like I can make up for it on Monday as some severe potential could come closer to home and could do some chasing before I head in for my 10PM shift at the casino. I will update tonight with my plans!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/28/2008 05:04:00 PM
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Thursday, March 27, 2008
The Week Ahead
Today is Thursday, and it has been a day that I have been monitoring for about a week now. But I am certain that today's setup is very highly conditional on if the very stout cap can be broken. It looks like a potential day if and only if certain conditions can be met, including the breaking up of cloud cover and the decent warming of the surface. Needless to say, I will watch this from the comfort of Gardner, Kansas.
Saturday, I am still planning to head out of town to Lincoln, NE for the Central Plains Severe Symposium. I am looking forward to the presentations and exhibits. Right now it is not a definite on if I am going or not or if I wanted to save the money for future storm chasing. But I just might go just to get out of the house and to fully utilize a day of PTO.
Edit: Sunday by the 12Z NAM today looks sort of interesting for W and SW Oklahoma. Looks like a weak surface low pressure in the TX panhandle with associated triple point will lend a chance for some severe weather. So far I am not too excited about it.
But the GFS out at 192 hours has caught my attention. At 0Z next Friday (Thursday afternoon), the model is showing a surface low pressure in central Oklahoma. Well defined triple point is progged in place with 60+ degree Td's ahead of the dryline. The N-S oriented dryline sets up along I-35 with SBCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg with a max between I-40 and the Kansas state line. With the upper level storm in Kansas setting up decent SW 500mb winds, this is a system worth watching for the time being. We will see if the GFS keeps a hold on this system.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/27/2008 02:33:00 AM
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Monday, March 24, 2008
It's Monday!
Not too much goings on in the world of the VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chaser. I have two days of work before I am off for four days (off Wednesday-Saturday).
I am still watching the system for Thursday. There is still quite the spread on the models regarding the location of the storm system. The GFS favors a more northerly track of a supposed triple-point while the NAM is further south. Of course I favor anything that is closer to home, and the GFS sets up the triple point around the OK/KS border, looks like on Osage County at 0Z Friday. Should the GFS verify, there will be a chance for some severe weather in SE Kansas into NE Oklahoma where shear will be strongest near the triple point and the northern extent of the dryline as shear weakens further south.
Saturday is on and off again on the model maps and I will continue to monitor. Either way on Saturday, I will be chasing or attending the Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium, so I am going somewhere, but where, will be determined in the future.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/24/2008 02:28:00 PM
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Saturday, March 22, 2008
Next week and severe weather potential
The current 12Z runs of the GFS from today still show a storm system to hit the Plains states on Thursday and another system caught my eye, albeit 180 hours out, to hit the southern Plains states on Saturday. Hopefully for my sake, that the Saturday system continues to be progged on the models as I have a day of PTO taken for the day (been planning to attend the Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium in Lincoln, NE on Saturday, but will go chasing if it warrants!).
Let's start on Thursday as it appears a cold front and associated dryline should accompany a 997mb surface low and associated upper level storm system with an associated triple point set up in NW Oklahoma by 0Z Friday. Instability should appear to reach in to the mid 1k range from Kansas City to around 2k the further south. Dewpoints are progged in the lower 60s ahead of the dryline and cold front. With a temperature/dewpoint spread of about 15-20 degrees in Oklahoma chances run amuck for some high bases, but will continue to monitor the system as the days progress.
Saturday, albeit 180 hours out, looks a little more interesting, at least to the 12Z GFS. I am a little more cautious about this system because as I see it, it is the first mention of it in the model runs. The 0Z runs from last night do not mention this system and is complete opposite of what the current run dictates. The current runs show a surface low at 1001mb in position in the Texas panhandle by 0Z Sunday. As associated triple point along with a N-S oriented dryline are progged in extreme southern Oklahoma (south of a progged warm front) into Texas. GFS easily indicates Tds in the middle-upper 60s in Texas and southern Oklahoma ahead of the dryline with even 70+ readings, with only 70+ degree surface temperatures along and south of the Red River. Mid level winds at 500mb to the WSW at 40-50 knots and surface winds backing to the SE should equate to some adequate shear. With forecasted lifted indicies at -8 or lower, the possibilities of tornadoes could be enhanced. I will keep a definite watch on this system as it either progresses in future model runs or completely falls off the map. I am crossing my fingers for this setup as I do have a day of PTO!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/22/2008 11:53:00 AM
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Thursday, March 20, 2008
More GFS Wishcasting!
There is nothing much better to do storm chasing wise than look at the GFS model for more wishcasting! The current 12Z model runs highlight what appears to be next Thursday, March 27th. A mid week warm up appears to be happening with surface air temperatures in the middle to upper 60's in the Kansas City area to 80 degrees or above in the Texas Panhandle. It appears that a surface low pressure system will be moving to the southeast during the day from Wyoming to the Texas Panhandle. WNW 500mb winds will turn to the WSW from Wednesday into Thursday. Moisture should be making a return with 60-65 degree dewpoints forecasted to arrive as far north as the Kansas City metro area with 65-70 degree dewpoints from the Red River south in Texas in front of a sharp dryline that is set up. All I can say is to hope that the GFS maintains some consistency with this system as the time of arrival comes closer, but of course this is the first mention this model has of this particular storm/location. With all the hype that was on the Saint Patrick's Day system (myself included) which only netted 3 tornado reports, I'll keep it cool for a few more days.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/20/2008 12:02:00 PM
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Saturday, March 15, 2008
First chase of the year!
I didn't see any severe weather, but was treated to a magnificent lightning display over the skies of northern Oklahoma on Friday on the first chase of the 2008 season! I knew it was a gamble on the setup, and it was evident as I viewed the very high bases on the storms that struggled to develop from NW of Enid to near Perry. I was banking on the hope of a storm becoming surface based but that hope never sufficed.
There was an abundant amount of cloud to ground lightning bolts along with cloud to cloud lightning that lit up the evening sky, and unfortunately I do not have any video or pictures to show (but will next time I am in that situation!). All in all, a good way to start out the 2008 chase season, as April, May, and June are just around the corner.
I did run the updated pictures (VORTEXpursuit.com Live) every minute or so for a short period of time while testing out most of the new equipment. Most went flawless though I did have a few problems with the Sprint internet connection; a few times it would lock up on me to the point that I needed to reboot the computer. I also did learn not to run the GPS that comes with the wireless card and instead use a USB GPS (maybe this might have been causing problems with my internet connection?). I still have a lot to learn about the new equipment.
Monday's setup looks very intriguing and I wish I could chase it but no way I can take off of work as people want their Saint Patrick's Day off, oh well, the setup looks very good and good luck to those who chase it!
Miles traveled today: 640
New counties visited for the first time (yes, I county collect): Garfield (OK), Grant (OK)
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/15/2008 12:58:00 AM
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Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Still...
The GFS is still showing something, what appears to now be a cold core setup, for St. Patrick's Day. 12Z model runs show a 986mb low centered in NE Kansas at 0Z Mar 18. Looks like surface temperatures will only make it in the upper 40's with Td's in the lower-mid 40's. There is a small pocket of instability with SBCAPE values at or exceeding 500 j/kg in the area mentioned. Not too sure if this can even make a severe weather situation due to the very marginal moisture that will be available, but will still keep tabs on the system. I have been watching the system since Saturday and have been impressed with the run-to-run consistency that the GFS has been showing on this system (Now that I said it, the system will disappear off the map soon). If anything else, looks like possible snow on this system...
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/11/2008 12:59:00 PM
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Sunday, March 9, 2008
Today's GFS views
I may like wishcasting because one I haven't gone on a chase this year even though I could have gone on a few tornado producing days, January 7th for example across Missouri. Today's 12Z GFS model offers more moisture starved days that otherwise have good parameters for severe weather. The latest model shows hints of a system to impact KS/OK/TX with a 990mb low on Friday (I'm off work, yay), the next system shows to impact KS/MO/OK with a mega squall line on St. Patrick's Day. The winds don't seem to want to turn with increasing height, even the 110kt wind speeds at 500mb scares me. After that, there really isn't much to look at.
Maybe I want to go out chasing, but I can't stop looking at the stupid GFS model. But watch, these systems will flip flop in and out of the model runs and will completely disappear.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/09/2008 02:01:00 PM
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Saturday, March 8, 2008
The GFS, wishcast heaven!
The GFS model continues to show systems out in the 200+ hour range that look impressive, but as always, weaken or just end up disappearing as time progresses. The current 12Z GFS model shows a nice storm system hitting the midwest around the St. Patrick's Day timeframe. Of course a few days ago, it showed a nice system to hit the midwest on Wednesday, and then a few model runs past, that system disappeared and another one showed up with a 984mb low in NW Oklahoma for Sunday the 16th. It could be the same system that is showing up today to head in the Plains on the 17th. Either way, the GFS model is always fun to look at, and just to ponder the possibilities on if a model run should come true...I at least hope this one comes true as it would give central and eastern Kansas a shot at some severe weather on the 17th.
Only time will tell.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/08/2008 01:11:00 PM
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Thursday, March 6, 2008
VORTEXpursuit.com 2.0 has launched!
Not fully complete, though, I launched VORTEXpursuit.com 2.0 early this morning. This new design makes it a lot more easier on me to update the chase logs and the such. There are some items that just hold empty placeholder pages at the moment and these are future projects that I am working on. I am working on getting real-time weather information on the website through the install of HamWeather on the cgi directories and so far the testing is working pretty well, but it is not ready for launch at the moment. As promised from a very very long time ago, the chase log for the May 22nd chase at Saint Peter, Kansas is complete and is up.
Edit: The May 8, 2003 log from the Lawrence, KS F2 tornado is now complete and is up.
Even though it is launched, there is still a lot of work to do between now and the start of storm chasing season, so stay tuned!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/06/2008 03:23:00 AM
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Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Welcome to the VORTEXpursuit.com Blog!
This is the first post in the VORTEXpursuit.com Blog! I am just posting a test post to see how the formatting of the Blogger page is with the new edition of the VORTEXpursuit.com website, so far so good!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/05/2008 09:47:00 AM
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