Wow, I haven't updated the blog in almost a week...
The period of today/tomorrow in terms of severe weather is a tough call regarding where and if to chase. Most of the Moderate Risk area highlighted by the recent Day 1 outlook by the SPC is sitting under cloud cover and developing convection. This is going to make it tough for the area to become unstable for the fuel for any afternoon convection. Going to the other target area, by the surface low in the area of eastern Colorado to southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas, there isn't anything going on in the area at the present moment, but cloud cover is approaching from the south. Forecasted temperatures in the 70's with dewpoints struggling to reach the mid 50's has me scratching my head at both of the target areas. It is a pretty safe bet to say that I will not be chasing today, but I will still keep a watchful eye to the western target area in case something changes. I think both target areas today should be able to see some severe weather. Best chances for tornadic storms is in the better moisture availability in Texas, but I wouldn't be surprised to see something go up in the High Plains of CO/KS/NE.
I am scratching my head about tomorrow's setup also. Tomorrow there is a stronger cap to play with which could help or hinder the development process. Relative Humidity at 700mb is relatively dry south of I-70 making anything in that area conditional for development. But the way it looks, best chances for discrete severe weather and tornado potential are north of I-70 and south of I-80 and east of the dryline. If the cap can be broken south of I-70, storms will be stronger than those that fire north of the highway. Perhaps this day could be a tail-end charlie day? If I chase tomorrow, it will be the third time I will head out for a chase on April 24th (chased 4/24/03 and 4/24/07).
EDIT (12:20PM): New Day 2 out and highlights a majority of central/eastern Kansas and south central/southeastern Nebraska in a moderate risk area. The end of the Day 2 outlook has caught my attention:
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. BUT...A STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IS PROGGED TOWARD EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ALONG WITH AN ENLARGING OF CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...TO SUPPORT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AN ISOLATED LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL OR TWO ACCOMPANIED BY PERSISTENT TORNADIC ACTIVITY DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION...BEFORE MID/UPPER FORCING SUPPORTS INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA/KANSAS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. Looks like chasing on Thursday is becoming more likely and I have now officially called off any chasing for today unless something local pops up.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/23/2008 09:45:00 AM
