It's April Fool's Day, but it's no April Foolin' that the SPC has some interesting wording on their Day 3 outlook. SPC mentioned a possible moderate risk may be needed should the models continue what was forecasted last night. I have been monitoring Thursday since last week's Thursday and the 0Z model runs have highlighted on what might be a very good shot at getting some severe weather in Oklahoma and into northern Texas. Thursday, falling right in the middle of my usual 3 days off on my work week and right smack on payday, has led me to raise the probablility of myself storm chasing to 50% and also to a code yellow. I have already made arrangements a while back and I have somebody to watch my kids that day so I am all ready to go dependent on what the future model runs hold for the system.
Taking a gander at the 12Z model run which just came in, a very sharp dryline with associated bulge should be taking shape near or just north of the Red River on Thursday at or near Lawton, OK/Wichita Falls, TX by 0Z Friday. The warm front along a line just north of Lawton to Ardmore. Moderate instability ahead of the dryline with very aqeuate shear will lead to the development of discrete storms with supercells very likely. Very steep lapse rates will also contribute to a very large hail threat. Shear vectors just about perpendicular to the dryline will contribute to possibilities of rotating supercells and tornadoes and with SRH at high values, large tornadoes are very possible. The GFS hasn't come in yet, but the 0Z had the system a little more to the north, a desirable ideal for me at least, since it is closer, but to sum it up, this system looks very interesting and one I am keeping a very close eye on with a likelihood that I will be chasing it. It will likely be the first chase that VORTEXpursuit.com LIVE will be active, with live video streaming and pictures every minute. Stay tuned!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 4/01/2008 09:20:00 AM
