Today is Thursday, and it has been a day that I have been monitoring for about a week now. But I am certain that today's setup is very highly conditional on if the very stout cap can be broken. It looks like a potential day if and only if certain conditions can be met, including the breaking up of cloud cover and the decent warming of the surface. Needless to say, I will watch this from the comfort of Gardner, Kansas.
Saturday, I am still planning to head out of town to Lincoln, NE for the Central Plains Severe Symposium. I am looking forward to the presentations and exhibits. Right now it is not a definite on if I am going or not or if I wanted to save the money for future storm chasing. But I just might go just to get out of the house and to fully utilize a day of PTO.
Edit: Sunday by the 12Z NAM today looks sort of interesting for W and SW Oklahoma. Looks like a weak surface low pressure in the TX panhandle with associated triple point will lend a chance for some severe weather. So far I am not too excited about it.
But the GFS out at 192 hours has caught my attention. At 0Z next Friday (Thursday afternoon), the model is showing a surface low pressure in central Oklahoma. Well defined triple point is progged in place with 60+ degree Td's ahead of the dryline. The N-S oriented dryline sets up along I-35 with SBCAPE values exceeding 2000 J/Kg with a max between I-40 and the Kansas state line. With the upper level storm in Kansas setting up decent SW 500mb winds, this is a system worth watching for the time being. We will see if the GFS keeps a hold on this system.
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/27/2008 02:33:00 AM
