The GFS is still showing something, what appears to now be a cold core setup, for St. Patrick's Day. 12Z model runs show a 986mb low centered in NE Kansas at 0Z Mar 18. Looks like surface temperatures will only make it in the upper 40's with Td's in the lower-mid 40's. There is a small pocket of instability with SBCAPE values at or exceeding 500 j/kg in the area mentioned. Not too sure if this can even make a severe weather situation due to the very marginal moisture that will be available, but will still keep tabs on the system. I have been watching the system since Saturday and have been impressed with the run-to-run consistency that the GFS has been showing on this system (Now that I said it, the system will disappear off the map soon). If anything else, looks like possible snow on this system...
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/11/2008 12:59:00 PM
