The current 12Z runs of the GFS from today still show a storm system to hit the Plains states on Thursday and another system caught my eye, albeit 180 hours out, to hit the southern Plains states on Saturday. Hopefully for my sake, that the Saturday system continues to be progged on the models as I have a day of PTO taken for the day (been planning to attend the Central Plains Severe Weather Symposium in Lincoln, NE on Saturday, but will go chasing if it warrants!).
Let's start on Thursday as it appears a cold front and associated dryline should accompany a 997mb surface low and associated upper level storm system with an associated triple point set up in NW Oklahoma by 0Z Friday. Instability should appear to reach in to the mid 1k range from Kansas City to around 2k the further south. Dewpoints are progged in the lower 60s ahead of the dryline and cold front. With a temperature/dewpoint spread of about 15-20 degrees in Oklahoma chances run amuck for some high bases, but will continue to monitor the system as the days progress.
Saturday, albeit 180 hours out, looks a little more interesting, at least to the 12Z GFS. I am a little more cautious about this system because as I see it, it is the first mention of it in the model runs. The 0Z runs from last night do not mention this system and is complete opposite of what the current run dictates. The current runs show a surface low at 1001mb in position in the Texas panhandle by 0Z Sunday. As associated triple point along with a N-S oriented dryline are progged in extreme southern Oklahoma (south of a progged warm front) into Texas. GFS easily indicates Tds in the middle-upper 60s in Texas and southern Oklahoma ahead of the dryline with even 70+ readings, with only 70+ degree surface temperatures along and south of the Red River. Mid level winds at 500mb to the WSW at 40-50 knots and surface winds backing to the SE should equate to some adequate shear. With forecasted lifted indicies at -8 or lower, the possibilities of tornadoes could be enhanced. I will keep a definite watch on this system as it either progresses in future model runs or completely falls off the map. I am crossing my fingers for this setup as I do have a day of PTO!
# posted by VORTEXpursuit.com Storm Chasing @ 3/22/2008 11:53:00 AM
